One common mistake that distinguishes amateur players from more studied, modern professionals is how they play small pocket pairs from the big blind. The amateur player tends to overdo it with set-mining.
Set-Mining: The Common Mistake
Let’s break it down. Suppose the button opens, and you have 40 big blinds (bbs) effective. You look down at a small pocket pair, say 44. Many players would instinctively see this as an opportunity to set-mine.
It’s easy to think it’s reasonable to call here. After all, it only costs an extra big blind to see the flop, and if you miss, you can often get away cheaply.
While flopping sets can be highly rewarding, it only happens approximately 1 in 7 times. Playing small pairs only as set-mines means you’ll lose a lot of equity when you miss the set. You might end up folding the best hand on high-card flops, or you could lose more money on seemingly safe flops, like 7♠ 5♣ 2♦. Even if you do get to showdown, you’re unlikely to win much unless you improve your hand.
Crunching the Numbers
Here’s how GTO Wizard suggests playing small pairs in the big blind with 40 bbs effective, and the button has opened the action:
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When you’re in the big blind with small pairs (22, 33, 44, etc.), the standard strategy is to shove them for 40 bbs—no set-mining whatsoever.
This might seem counterintuitive. After all, you’d think that if you shove, you’ll only be called by hands that beat you. But let’s break it down further.
How the Button Should Respond
It’s true that all pairs that call you are ahead of 44—that includes 60 combinations out of the 155.43 hands that call. However, you’re still ahead of 95 combinations of hands, and you’re flipping against them.
While this doesn’t sound amazing at first glance, notice how many hands fold. In fact, the button folds 77% of the time when you shove. Even when called, you’re flipping a little under half the time, which is a really good result for a small pair like 44.
Shoving is much easier than defending on a flop with three overcards. When you shove, you avoid a situation where the board might be unfavorable, and you don’t know whether to continue or fold.
Real-World Application
In practice, this tactic might be even more successful than GTO suggests. Can you really see Q♠ J♠ calling in this spot? In GTO, the button would call with high suited connectors that perform well against small pairs, but most real-life players aren’t as observant and will likely overfold to this shove.
When Do We Set-Mine?
Let’s look at a similar spot, but this time, the under-the-gun (UTG) player has opened, not the button.
In this case, the strategy changes. Small pairs are not shoving here. Instead, all small pairs call.
So, what’s the difference in strategy? Let’s look at the ranges.
Under-the-Gun Range
The under-the-gun player’s range is typically very tight—this means they likely have strong hands when they open the pot.
Button Range
The button’s range, on the other hand, is 2.5 times wider than the UTG range.
Because the button’s range is so wide, when you flop a set, they’re more likely to have missed and won’t pay you off. When you’re up against a tight player like UTG, they’ll usually have a strong hand that will pay you off when you hit your set.
But with the button, the opposite is true. When you shove, the button is likely to fold the majority of the time. The button is so wide that aggression—such as shoving small pairs—is the optimal play, as they’ll fold frequently.
It’s more profitable to aggressively exploit the button’s wide range than to rely on set-mining.
The Key Takeaway
Stop mindlessly set-mining in these spots. You’re missing out on value by not taking advantage of the opportunities to apply aggression and put pressure on opponents who have weak ranges.
