In a recent episode of the Thinking Poker podcast, Andrew Brokos and Carlos Welch discussed a couple of interesting hands submitted by a player named Chris. Chris had two hands that were similar, where he likely started with the best hand, but the flop turned things around.
In the first hand, Chris raised with AK on the button and was 3-bet by the big blind. Chris chose to call instead of 4-betting. The flop came out with no significant help for him—just queen-high rags—and after the villain bet, Chris folded. He mentioned that he thought the villain’s betting range on that flop consisted mainly of AQ and QQ. Andrew and Carlos agreed that this was a good fold.
In the second hand, Chris 3-bet with JJ from the big blind after a raise from the cutoff and a call from the button. The flop came out king-high rags. Chris checked, and both the cutoff and button called the bet. Chris decided to fold, which was another sound decision.
Andrew praised Chris’s decision-making, stating that he was happy Chris gave himself the opportunity to fold. The key takeaway from these hands, according to Andrew, is the idea that just because you start with the best hand doesn’t mean you’re entitled to win the pot. This concept is what Andrew refers to as “entitlement tilt.” It’s a common trap where you feel that because you’ve made the correct pre-flop decisions, you deserve to win, even if the board doesn’t cooperate.
Carlos Welch, on the other hand, offered an insightful perspective: “I think Chris made the right decision preflop and post-flop in both hands, so he won the hands – even though the chips went the other way.” This folksy wisdom brings us to a core principle of poker: if you make the best possible decision with the information you have, you’ve won, regardless of the outcome of the hand.
Carlos emphasized that poker is a long-term game, and making the right decisions over time leads to success, even if you don’t win every hand. As David Sklansky, a legend in poker theory, famously said: “Every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all [your opponents’] cards, they lose.”
By folding when he no longer had the best hand, Chris ensured his opponents didn’t get value from him, making him the winner in the grand scheme of things—even if the chips didn’t go his way in that moment.
In poker, it’s not about winning every pot; it’s about making the best decisions and winning in the long run. And that’s the true victory. Thanks, Carlos Welch, for reminding us of this crucial truth.
