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Meeting a Hero: Nate Silver

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Meeting your heroes can often be a daunting experience, and sometimes, it goes much differently than expected. Whether it’s a fleeting, awkward moment or a memorable encounter, you never quite know what you’ll get.

I’ve had my fair share of these encounters. Thirty years ago, I met a rock ‘n roll hero, a household name. I simply shared my appreciation for his music, and you’d have thought I told him his glasses were out of style. But, just ten years ago, when I met Rod Stewart, the response was completely different. He greeted me with an “Oh darling!” and a big hug in the men’s room at the Savoy Hotel in London (yes, seriously).

Taking chances with these moments is part of it. When someone has impacted your life for the better, you may never get the chance to thank them again. So, if the universe lines it up, I always make sure to express my gratitude. Sometimes, the response is warm; other times, it’s not. But the act of saying it feels right.

This brings me to December, at the big tournament series at the Wynn in Las Vegas.

What Are the Odds?

I was walking through the Wynn poker room and headed toward the podium when I spotted Nate Silver heading out the door. I knew he’d been participating in the $1,100 HORSE tournament, and that players were now in the money. Given that Silver had likely just busted out, it didn’t seem like the best time to approach him — especially considering how poker can serve as an escape from the intense pressures of his high-profile life. But this was Nate Silver.

Who is Nate Silver?

For a brief introduction: Nate Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, a data-driven political and sports reporting site. He became famous for accurately predicting the winner in 49 out of 50 U.S. states during the 2008 presidential election, and improved that record in 2012. His insightful political analysis, grounded in data, provides a refreshing contrast to the usual mindless punditry we often see.

Silver also has a poker background. He was a professional poker player before transitioning fully into the world of data journalism, and his poker vocabulary sometimes even seeps into his political commentary. One famous 538 headline from November 2012: “Mitt Romney is drawing to an inside straight.” (A perfect example of his ability to blend his love for poker with political insight.)

How Nate Silver Changed My Life

To be honest, Nate Silver made me a small fortune in the 2012 election. I bet on his predictions, rather than following the drama-filled rhetoric of the mainstream media. Silver’s data-driven approach was spot on, and that made me a believer.

But what Nate did for me in the last couple of months has had an even bigger impact. I had a set amount of money I wanted to contribute to political candidates, but I wanted to ensure my donations made the biggest impact. So, I looked to FiveThirtyEight and researched three candidates that they had identified as being in tight but winnable races. I put all my funds into those races, and I managed to hit the trifecta. Nate would be the first to say I was running pure, but regardless, I placed my money wisely thanks to his analysis.

The Encounter

When I saw Nate at the Wynn, I introduced myself and expressed my appreciation for his work. Despite just busting out 25th in the HORSE event, he was incredibly gracious. He even complimented me on my prior role in the poker world. For me, that was like hearing Tony Gwynn praise my batting stance. It was the highlight of my week.

I didn’t keep him long — he looked like he needed a drink and some quiet time, which I completely understood. But just those few moments of gratitude meant a lot to me. It’s rare to meet someone who has made the world a better place, and I wanted to say thank you.

The Confidence to Express Appreciation

Thanks to moments like these, I now have the confidence to express my appreciation the next time I encounter a hero. Whether it’s a moment of awkwardness or one of pure connection, I know that I’ll be glad I took the chance.


A Political Contest

To tie this all back to the theme of politics, I’m offering a $100 donation to the charity of your choice for a little contest. The first person to correctly name the three candidates I supported with my donations will win. Here are the clues you need:

  • The races I supported had national legislative importance, but no gubernatorial races were involved.

  • I supported three candidates, all of whom won by narrow margins.

  • I focused on races where my donations would likely have the most impact.

The T&Cs of the competition are, as always, whatever I decide they are. Happy guessing!

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