Alex Fitzgerald offers a sharp piece of advice aimed at players who fall into the trap of hero calling—calling big bets on the river when they’re uncertain about the strength of their opponent’s hand. Fitzgerald argues that the vast majority of your opponents, especially recreational players and even some regulars, don’t bluff enough to justify these calls.
Why Hero Calls Are Overused
Fitzgerald highlights several reasons why hero calls (calling an opponent’s large river bet in a situation where you might be beat) often lead to unnecessary losses:
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Bluffing is Risky: Most players avoid bluffing because getting caught feels terrible. The stigma of a failed bluff makes players hesitant to attempt big bluffs, especially when they know it might be publicly scrutinized.
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Misconception About Bluffing: Many players wrongly believe that bluffs simply don’t work because “nobody ever folds to me.” This mentality can lead players to call when they should be folding because they expect their opponents to bluff more often than they actually do.
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Recreational and Regular Players Don’t Bluff Enough: Whether they’re recreational players or even some regulars, most players don’t understand the concept of blockers and capped ranges well enough. Even if they do, they tend to shy away from pulling the trigger and bluffing because it’s uncomfortable and risky.
When to Fold
Fitzgerald advises against calling big river bets unless there is a clear reason to believe your opponent could be bluffing:
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Value Betting Worse: Ask yourself if your opponent is value betting with a hand worse than yours. If they’re not, you’re likely facing a stronger hand, and your call isn’t justified.
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Missed Draws: Consider if your opponent could be betting a missed draw. If the board doesn’t present a missed draw, it’s less likely they’re bluffing, and a fold is probably in order.
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Lack of Creativity: If the opponent isn’t creative enough to bluff in these situations, it’s wise to assume they have a solid hand and avoid calling.
